Markov state models (MSMs), which model conformational dynamics as a network of transitions between metastable states, have been increasingly used to model the thermodynamics and kinetics of biomolecules. In considering perturbations to molecular dynamics induced by sequence mutations, chemical modifications, or changes in external conditions, it is important to assess how transition rates change, independent of changes in metastable state definitions. Here, we present a surprisal metric to qu…
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