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After reanalyzing simulations of NuG2-a designed mutant of protein G-generated by Lindorff-Larsen et al. with time structure-based independent components analysis and Markov state models as well as performing 1.5 ms of additional sampling on Folding@home, we found an intermediate with a register-shift in one of the β-sheets that was visited along a minor …

The traditional structure-function paradigm has provided significant insights for well-folded proteins in which structures can be easily and rapidly revealed by X-ray crystallography beamlines. However, approximately one-third of the human proteome is comprised of intrinsically disordered proteins and regions (IDPs/IDRs) that do not adopt a dominant well-folde…

As molecular dynamics simulations access increasingly longer time scales, complementary advances in the analysis of biomolecular time-series data are necessary. Markov state models offer a powerful framework for this analysis by describing a system’s states and the transitions between them. A recently established variational theorem for Markov state models now…

MSMBuilder is a software package for building statistical models of high-dimensional time-series data. It is designed with a particular focus on the analysis of atomistic simulations of biomolecular dynamics such as protein folding and conformational change. MSMBuilder is named for its ability to construct Markov state models (MSMs), a class of models that has…

Reaction coordinates are widely used throughout chemical physics to model and understand complex chemical transformations. We introduce a definition of the natural reaction coordinate, suitable for condensed phase and biomolecular systems, as a maximally predictive one-dimensional projection. We then show that this criterion is uniquely satisfied by a dominant…

Markov state models (MSMs) are a powerful framework for analyzing protein dynamics. MSMs require the decomposition of conformation space into states via clustering, which can be cross-validated when a prediction method is available for the clustering method. We present an algorithm for predicting cluster assignments of new data points with Ward’s minimum varia…

The dynamics of globular proteins can be described in terms of transitions between a folded native state and less-populated intermediates, or excited states, which can play critical roles in both protein folding and function. Excited states are by definition transient species, and therefore are difficult to characterize using current experimental techniques. H…

Beta-hairpins are substructures found in proteins that can lend insight into more complex systems. Furthermore, the folding of beta-hairpins is a valuable test case for benchmarking experimental and theoretical methods. Here, we simulate the folding of CLN025, a miniprotein with a beta-hairpin structure, at its experimental melting temperature using a range of…

Markov state models (MSMs) are a powerful framework for the analysis of molecular dynamics data sets, such as protein folding simulations, because of their straightforward construction and statistical rigor. The coarse-graining of MSMs into an interpretable number of macrostates is a crucial step for connecting theoretical results with experimental observables…

Markov state models (MSMs) are a powerful framework for analyzing dynamical systems, such as molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, that have gained widespread use over the past several decades. This perspective offers an overview of the MSM field to date, presented for a general audience as a timeline of key developments in the field. We sequentially address ea…