A Maximum-Caliber Approach to Predicting Perturbed Folding Kinetics Due to Mutations.
We present a maximum-caliber method for inferring transition rates of a Markov state model (MSM) with perturbed equilibrium populations given estimates of state populations and rates for an unperturbed MSM. It is similar in spirit to previous approaches, but given the inclusion of prior information, it is more robust and simple to implement. We examine its performance in simple biased diffusion models of kinetics and then apply the method to predicting changes in folding rates for several high…
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