Choice of Adaptive Sampling Strategy Impacts State Discovery, Transition Probabilities, and the Apparent Mechanism of Conformational Changes

Interest in atomically detailed simulations has grown significantly with recent advances in computational hardware and Markov state modeling (MSM) methods, yet outstanding questions remain that hinder their widespread adoption. Namely, how do alternative sampling strategies explore conformational space and how might this influence predictions generated from the data? Here, we seek to answer these questions for four commonly used sampling methods: (1) a single long simulation, (2) many…

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Solution-State Preorganization of Cyclic β-Hairpin Ligands Determines Binding Mechanism and Affinities for MDM2

Understanding mechanisms of protein folding and binding is crucial to designing their molecular function. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations and Markov state model (MSM) approaches provide a powerful way to understand complex conformational change that occurs over long time scales. Such dynamics are important for the design of therapeutic peptidomimetic ligan…

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Reconciling Simulations and Experiments With BICePs: A Review

Bayesian Inference of Conformational Populations (BICePs) is an algorithm developed to reconcile simulated ensembles with sparse experimental measurements. The Bayesian framework of BICePs enables population reweighting as a post-simulation processing step, with several advantages over existing methods, including the proper use of reference potentials, and the…

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Assigning confidence to molecular property prediction

Introduction: Computational modeling has rapidly advanced over the last decades. Recently, machine learning has emerged as a powerful and cost-effective strategy to learn from existing datasets and perform predictions on unseen molecules. Accordingly, the explosive rise of data-driven techniques raises an important question: What confidence can be assig…

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Stacking Gaussian processes to improve [Formula: see text] predictions in the SAMPL7 challenge

Accurate predictions of acid dissociation constants are essential to rational molecular design in the pharmaceutical industry and elsewhere. There has been much interest in developing new machine learning methods that can produce fast and accurate pKa predictions for arbitrary species, as well as estimates of prediction uncertainty. Previously, as part of the …

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Expanded Ensemble Methods Can be Used to Accurately Predict Protein-Ligand Relative Binding Free Energies

Alchemical free energy methods have become indispensable in computational drug discovery for their ability to calculate highly accurate estimates of protein-ligand affinities. Expanded ensemble (EE) methods, which involve single simulations visiting all of the alchemical intermediates, have some key advantages for alchemical free energy calculation. However, t…

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Antagonism between substitutions in β-lactamase explains a path not taken in the evolution of bacterial drug resistance

CTX-M β-lactamases are widespread in Gram-negative bacterial pathogens and provide resistance to the cephalosporin cefotaxime but not to the related antibiotic ceftazidime. Nevertheless, variants have emerged that confer resistance to ceftazidime. Two natural mutations, causing P167S and D240G substitutions in the CTX-M enzyme, result in 10-fold increased…

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SARS-CoV-2 Simulations Go Exascale to Capture Spike Opening and Reveal Cryptic Pockets Across the Proteome

SARS-CoV-2 has intricate mechanisms for initiating infection, immune evasion/suppression, and replication, which depend on the structure and dynamics of its constituent proteins. Many protein structures have been solved, but far less is known about their relevant conformational changes. To address this challenge, over a million citizen scientists banded togeth…

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